Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.462698 12.004745 13.670120 15.599178 17.768835 20.130301 22.891687
2025-04-27 8.236397 10.327880 12.765974 15.804966 19.477317 23.756699 29.105050
2025-05-04 6.979552 9.271711 12.078579 15.744196 20.377642 26.009898 33.341257
2025-05-11 5.941596 8.318120 11.360693 15.503364 20.952719 27.826763 37.096704
2025-05-18 5.250770 7.693995 10.944559 15.531406 21.772681 29.895137 41.177318
2025-05-25 4.741557 7.243251 10.689877 15.712540 22.756794 32.181720 45.619093
2025-06-01 4.259190 6.767312 10.338063 15.700326 23.434708 34.050229 49.550855
2025-06-08 3.810998 6.287894 9.926394 15.548304 23.874204 35.577662 53.051256
2025-06-15 3.500536 5.980686 9.730596 15.677713 24.699382 37.657679 57.396092
2025-06-22 3.308846 5.836999 9.761557 16.134825 26.015038 40.484600 62.923497
2025-06-29 2.996895 5.466085 9.405466 15.961229 26.353457 41.877842 66.395768
2025-07-06 2.596234 4.906163 8.699696 15.177244 25.687662 41.716104 67.513147
2025-07-13 2.453343 4.780248 8.697991 15.536443 26.854728 44.419562 73.143681
2025-07-20 2.310289 4.640200 8.660635 15.831689 27.932872 47.035058 78.760155
2025-07-27 2.117390 4.388695 8.408785 15.740280 28.360012 48.629014 82.824433
2025-08-03 1.922822 4.113849 8.091978 15.509717 28.532090 49.809673 86.266575
2025-08-10 1.785198 3.934212 7.929675 15.534297 29.129392 51.695105 90.910110
2025-08-17 1.681612 3.811268 7.860238 15.716651 30.002223 54.063942 96.431447
2025-08-24 1.561973 3.643430 7.692259 15.704032 30.524825 55.860125 101.063908
2025-08-31 1.436500 3.450393 7.459723 15.552113 30.783260 57.208956 104.985233
2025-09-07 1.353886 3.340446 7.379985 15.681504 31.552826 59.459905 110.517417
2025-09-14 1.312124 3.315983 7.468231 16.138731 32.946399 62.850017 118.134274
2025-09-21 1.209624 3.144590 7.243842 15.965091 33.145923 64.134604 122.121932